While there are concerns that a conflict between China and Taiwan could trigger World War III, many Taiwanese people do not believe that such a war will happen in the near future. Nevertheless, the political tensions between China and Taiwan, as well as the involvement of the United States, remain hotly debated issues. China has been conducting military drills around Taiwan since last year, causing increased tensions between the two sides, especially among Taiwanese citizens.
To better understand the current conflict, it is important to examine Taiwan’s past. The island, once known as Formosa or “beautiful island” by Portuguese sailors, went through Dutch and Spanish colonialism during the 17th century, after which Han Chinese began immigrating to Taiwan. Taiwan became increasingly integrated into the Qing Dynasty, and after it was ceded to the Empire of Japan in 1895 following the First Sino-Japanese War, Taiwan was controlled by Japan for 50 years. During this time, Japanese reforms transformed Taiwanese society, including education and language, and many buildings were constructed.
After the Chinese civil war between Nationalists and Communists from 1927-1949, the Communists defeated the Nationalists and founded the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. The Nationalists fled to Taiwan under the rule of Chiang Kai-shek, bringing the Republic of China government with them, which was originally established in China in 1911. However, many Taiwanese people, who had been living on the island for generations, did not welcome the Nationalists. Today, Taiwan still uses the official name Republic of China, but only 13 countries recognize it. PRC claims that Taiwan is already part of China and has never left, except during Japanese occupation between 1895 and 1945. Most Taiwanese people, however, do not support this idea and believe that Taiwan is a sovereign country with its own constitution and army.
PRC has continued its military presence around Taiwan, and the recent visit of US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022 has angered PRC. Before and after the visit, PRC strongly condemned official meetings between the US and Taiwan, calling the visit a “provocation” that “seriously infringes upon China’s sovereignty.” PRC leader Xi Jinping warned the US government to abide by the One China principle during a telephone meeting with US President Joe Biden and stated that “Those who play with fire will perish by it,” adding that the US would be “playing with fire” if Pelosi were allowed to visit Taiwan. In response, the Chinese government imposed economic sanctions and conducted military drills around Taiwan from August 4-7, including live-fire drills, air sorties, naval deployments, and ballistic missile launches by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). PRC continues to use this policy towards Taiwan, and any meeting between Taiwan and the US government provides an excuse for the PLA to start new military drills around Taiwan.
Taiwanese People Believe War with China Unlikely Despite Military Exercises
Despite these actions, most Taiwanese people do not believe that there will be a war between China and Taiwan. Taiwanese police officer Chen Jing Shen stated, “Cross-strait relations make me think Taiwan is a safe place. We know China is exercising with its military around Taiwan. They are not using weapons directly against Taiwan, but they want to take Taiwan back. Maybe in the past more people were thinking of going back to China, but this is impossible right now. Taiwanese people won’t accept China’s governance. Western media is asking whether Taiwan is safe or not. I think it is safe for now. There is still a risk of attack by China, but I don’t think this will happen soon. The international community is following this situation, and Taiwan is also preparing itself for defense. I think the next few years will be okay for safety in Taiwan.”