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Food, medicine, clothing, and various industrial materials are imported by Libyan traders to meet the needs of the local market. Approximately 85% of goods supplied to the market are imported. However, all goods are supplied to Libya using non-local currencies due to the Libyan Bank’s inability to meet the foreign currency needs of all traders. Consequently, a parallel market for speculation in foreign currency has emerged, facilitating money transfers between Libyan cities and funds from outside Libya into the country. This parallel market operates solely based on demand and supply rules, resulting in the dollar price being 400 or 500 dirhams higher than the rate set by the Central Bank of Libya. During times of political crisis, this value may increase further.

Traders prefer to conduct transactions through the parallel market due to the faster completion of transactions and the absence of procedural complexities compared to banks. However, engaging in this market exposes traders to potential losses. Muhammad Atturki, a currency trader, expressed his concerns, stating, “Rising or falling currency results in sometimes significant losses, as we are being robbed because our trade depends on money transfers in large numbers and weak security in Libya.”

Speculation in the foreign exchange rate has led to a significant difference between the official rate and the rate in the parallel market. Previously, one dollar was equivalent to 9 Libyan dinars in the parallel market, while its official rate was only 1.30 dinars. Some specialists attribute the decrease in the foreign currency rate and its position in the parallel market to government decisions. Economist Abubakar Attor called for speculative companies and shops to be linked to the Central Bank of Libya to ensure better cash management in the country and to control the rising import of goods from abroad.

Abubakar Attor further commented on the nature of the parallel market, stating, “It is considered a free market and controlled by a group of speculators only. There are no specific regulations, and it operates as a license to sell and buy foreign currency without controls. The currency market worldwide experiences fluctuations of around 50 dirhams, but when the dollar price rises dramatically, the market closes until its price adjusts.”

Despite the perceptions of economists and the grievances expressed by currency traders, foreign currency seekers find that the parallel market meets their needs, even if it means paying an extra amount.

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Jelei Oil Refinery Suffers $1.3B War Damage in Sudan

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The Jelei oil refinery north of Khartoum has suffered massive damage due to the ongoing conflict in Sudan, with losses estimated at approximately $1.3 billion. Some units were completely destroyed, while others require replacement parts.

The refinery, located in the Jelei area, 70 kilometers north of the capital, was established in 1997 and began operating in 2000 through a partnership between the Sudanese Ministry of Energy and the China National Petroleum Corporation. It was later transferred entirely to the ministry, and the construction cost more than $1 billion.

 

Refinery Under Shelling

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized control of the refinery in April 2023, before the armed forces regained control in January 2024.

According to military sources, the army avoided using airstrikes and artillery to protect the refinery, its infrastructure, and its technical facilities. Instead, it employed integrated tactics, including a siege and cutting off supply lines to the RSF, weakening and exhausting their capabilities before retaking control of the refinery at the end of January.

As the army approached the facility three months ago, a massive fire broke out, which government forces accused the RSF of deliberately setting “in a desperate attempt to destroy” the infrastructure. For its part, the RSF accused the army of dropping “barrel bombs” on the refinery from warplanes.

 

Refinery Shut Down

“In July 2023, the refinery shut down and we stopped working,” said Sirajuddin Muhammad, deputy director of the Jelei refinery and head of the maintenance department.

Standing in front of some of the completely destroyed equipment, he added, “Some units were completely destroyed and are no longer in service, and there are parts that need to be completely replaced.”

According to experts, it is difficult to determine the timeframe required to restart the refinery, as some parts need to be manufactured in China and shipped back to Sudan.

 

Massive Losses

Sirajuddin Muhammad stated, “The losses amounted to $1.3 billion.” He explained that it is difficult to determine when operations will resume, as some parts must be remanufactured “in the country of origin, which determines the time it takes, in addition to the shipping time from China to here.”

According to Muhammad, China built the Jelei refinery in two phases, in 2000 and 2006, at a cost of $2.7 billion. Beijing retains a 10 percent stake in the refinery, while the Sudanese government owns 90 percent.

Engineers and oil experts say that if funding is available, “it will take three years to restart the refinery,” which supplies Sudan with more than half of its oil consumption and also produces gasoline and cooking gas.

Despite efforts to extinguish the fire, the refinery, built at a cost of $2.7 billion by China, has been severely damaged by war and conflict and will require rehabilitation, which could take up to three years if funding is secured, according to refinery management.

It is worth noting that the refinery previously covered more than half of Sudan’s oil needs, including the production of gasoline and cooking gas, with an estimated daily output of 100,000 barrels.

Economic Crisis

Since its secession in 2011, landlocked South Sudan has relied on Sudan for oil refining and export via Port Sudan.

Economic experts say the shutdown of the Jelei refinery has severely damaged the Sudanese economy, as it “provided 50 percent of gasoline consumption, 40 percent of diesel consumption, and 50 percent of cooking gas.” They added, “With its shutdown, Sudan was forced to import to fill the gap… Imports are made through the private sector in hard currency, causing the value of the Sudanese pound to decline.”

The diesel shortage had the greatest impact, as the agricultural and military sectors rely on it, in addition to its use in electricity generation.

 

Pipeline Closure

For decades, oil revenues were a major source of income for Sudan, but with the secession of South Sudan, approximately 75 percent of the oil reserves were transferred to the new state.

However, Juba continued to rely on Sudanese facilities to transport and refine oil, in exchange for fees that constituted a significant portion of Khartoum’s hard currency income.

Since the outbreak of the war, this agreement has faced significant challenges, including damage to a major oil pipeline due to clashes between the Sudanese army and the RSF, which halted exports for nearly a year.

With the difficulty of exporting oil, the shutdown of local facilities, and the need to import fuel, the Sudanese economy has suffered successive blows, leading to rising inflation and falling currency value.

According to oil expert and former Sudapet director Dr. Ayman Abu Al-Jukh, Sudan’s oil production has decreased by more than 25,000 barrels per day—around 50 percent—since the war began, representing losses equivalent to $2 million per day.

Dr. Al-Jukh also stated that the closure of pipelines transporting South Sudan’s oil has triggered an economic crisis in South Sudan, with inflation reaching record levels due to the halt in the flow of 120,000 barrels of oil per day.

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